India’s economy is projected to have grown by 8.1% in the October-December 2025 quarter (Q3 FY26), marking the second consecutive quarter of expansion above 8%, according to a report by SBI Research released on Tuesday. This forecast is powered by **strong consumption**, particularly in rural areas.
The research note attributes the resilient economic activity to positive signals from both farm and non-farm sectors, which continue to bolster rural demand. Meanwhile, urban consumption is also showing a “consistent uptick,” supported by fiscal stimulus measures since the last festive season.
The official GDP data for the quarter, which will be the first to be based on a new base year of 2022-23 (replacing 2011-12), is scheduled for release by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on February 27, 2026.
Alongside the quarterly figures, the ministry will also publish the Second Advance Estimates for the full fiscal year 2025-26 and revise GDP estimates for the past three financial years to align with the new base. The government has stated that the new series, which incorporates more granular data like GST records and e-Vahan vehicle registration details, will improve data accuracy.
SBI Research noted that while it expects Q3 growth to be “closer to 8.1 per cent,” the significant methodological changes make it difficult to predict the direction of any revisions. For context, the first advance estimate had pegged 2025-26 GDP growth at 7.4% (based on the old 2011-12 series). India’s growth was 6.5% in 2024-25.
